This research introduces two complementary measures of price dynamics in 2025: the Consumer-Cost Index (CCI) and the Market-Exposed Cost Pressure Index (MECPI). The CCI follows consumer-price-index methodology using official expenditure weights and a uniform year-over-year window (Aug 2024 → Aug 2025) to capture household purchasing-power change. The MECPI isolates market-exposed pressures,including gold, currency, energy equities, and wholesale inputs, to show how producers and globally priced goods experience cost shifts not reflected in CPI. Together these indices demonstrate the divergence between consumer inflation and upstream cost pressure in a transparent, non-partisan framework. All computations, data sources, and charts were assembled collaboratively by Christopher Nedza with analytical assistance from GPT-5 (OpenAI).
The CCI reflects household purchasing-power change based on consumer-price data and CPI-style weights. The MECPI, by contrast, captures market-exposed pressures (including gold, energy equities, currency movement, and wholesale inputs) that do not appear in CPI but influence producer costs and asset-linked purchasing power. Both metrics together provide a clearer view of how price pressures differ across the economy.
We compute a Consumer-Cost Index (CCI) that mirrors CPI practice: consumer price series only, CPI “relative importance” weights, and a uniform YoY window (Aug ’24 → Aug ’25). Non-consumer assets (gold), currencies (USD), and wholesale inputs (auction cattle) are excluded from the CCI and shown instead in the Market-Exposed index below.
| Category (consumer scope) | Weight | YoY change | Contribution (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shelter (CPI) | 35.0% | +3.6% | +1.26 |
| Used cars & trucks (CPI) | 2.4% | +6.0% | +0.14 |
| Meats, poultry, fish & eggs (CPI) | 1.6% | +5.6% | +0.09 |
| Motor gasoline (retail) | 3.0% | ~−2.0% | −0.06 |
| Other goods & services (balance) | 58.0% | ~+3.0% | +1.74 |
| Total | 100% | ~3.17 |
Notes: Shelter YoY ≈ +3.6% (Aug ’25). Used cars & trucks YoY ≈ +6.0% (Aug ’25). Meats CPI YoY ≈ +5.6% (Aug ’25). Gasoline uses retail averages (AAA/EIA) which were roughly flat to slightly down YoY by early Oct; we use ~−2% to align Aug→Aug. The “Other” bucket applies a conservative +3% to the residual expenditure share so the CCI stays consumer-only and fully weighted.
The MECPI tracks market-exposed pressures that are not part of consumer inflation measurement (CPI): USD vs. major currencies, gold, energy equities, and wholesale inputs (Georgia feeder-calf auctions). These series inform cost pressure and external/purchasing power, but they are not consumer prices and are kept separate from the CCI. We publish a numeric MECPI and provide live charts for FX and gold below.
These charts provide a live perspective on globally priced cost drivers included in the MECPI:
Receipt-level data from Georgia auction sales shows substantial movement in price per pound. These prices are wholesale commodity signals that inform producer margins and upstream cost pressure; they are not consumer prices.
Revised weighting emphasizes the macro role of the USD vs. majors (40%), with gold (20%), energy equities (20%), and feeder-calf (20%). These inputs measure market cost pressure, not consumer inflation.
| Component | Window | Weight | Change | Contribution (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD vs. Majors (external PP) | YoY (approx) | 40.0% | 11.0% | 4.40 |
| Gold (USD) | YoY (approx, 2024-10 → 2025-10) | 20.0% | 48.0% | 9.60 |
| Energy Equities (XLE) | YoY (approx, 2024-10 → 2025-10) | 20.0% | 18.0% | 3.60 |
| Feeder-Calf (GA auctions) | 2025 YTD (Apr 29 → Oct 7); not true YoY | 20.0% | 90.9% | 18.18 |
| Total | 100% | 35.78 |
The table below summarizes how different inflation measures relate to one another based on scope and methodology. Each index uses distinct data inputs and weights but provides insight into how price changes affect different parts of the economy.
| Index | Definition | YoY Change | Scope / Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Personal CPI (PCI) | The author’s individualized cost-of-living estimate, based on real spending data (rent = 39.1% of net income). | 3.24% | Applies national CPI YoY per category; weights derived from the author’s actual budget composition. |
| Consumer-Cost Index (CCI) | A consumer-only model using CPI-style expenditure weights for standard cost-of-living analysis. | 3.17% | Based on national CPI YoY (Aug ’24 → Aug ’25). |
| Market-Exposed Cost Pressure Index (MECPI) | Captures upstream and asset-linked price movements (gold, currency, energy, livestock) not reflected in CPI. | 35.78% | Weighted YoY changes of market-exposed inputs; measures cost pressure rather than consumer inflation. |
| Official CPI / PCE | Official inflation measures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. | ~2.7–2.9% | National consumer expenditure–weighted average (headline CPI and core PCE). |
The Personal CPI (PCI) reflects the author’s individual cost-of-living change, while the CCI and MECPI serve as broader analytical models for consumer and market-level pressures. Together, these indices highlight how spending composition—particularly housing—can significantly influence the inflation experience.
All series use a uniform YoY window where applicable (Aug ’24 → Aug ’25). Links open in a new tab.
This page was assembled with GPT-5 to organize data, compute consumer-scope contributions, and separate market-exposed pressures for clarity. All interpretations are the author’s.